Washington Report: Political Black Swans

By Craig Piercy, ACPA Washington Advocate

What do the internet, the 2008 financial crisis, and the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs all have in common?

They are all “black swans,” highly improbable events that few, if any, saw coming, and which have major effects on a society, ecosystem or an industry sector.

The term “black swan” first gained popularity in 16th century England as a way to describe an impossible occurrence. Of course, a century later, Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh actually discovered black swans in Western Australia, and ever since, the term has morphed to describe a reality that once was considered impossible.

Recently, the black swan gained notoriety in a 2007 book by Nicholas Taleb, in which the former Wall Street trader accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis.

In politics, the last six months have seen the arrival of two black swans: the rapid rise and unexpected staying power of Donald Trump as the frontrunner in the 2016 GOP presidential race, and the emergence of Congressman Paul Ryan as the new Speaker of the House of Representatives.

In a way, Donald Trump’s entry into presidential politics is not completely surprising. He has publically flirted with running for president as far back as 1988. It’s his resiliency that has stunned the political establishment. In his announcement speech, he stirred immediate controversy by characterizing Mexicans as “rapists”—before quickly adding, “Some, I assume, are good people.” At the time, many pundits wrote him off as a flash in the pan.

Then, a month later at a policy forum in Iowa, Trump attacked the war record of Arizona senator and 2008 GOP nominee John McCain, who was shot down over Vietnam and spent five years in the Hanoi Hilton enduring physical and mental torture, while repeatedly refusing early release. Trump: “He’s not a war hero. He’s a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured.”

Many in the political establishment (including myself) thought Trump’s campaign was over at that point. I mean, how could it not be, right? Yet, a funny thing happened—Trump’s popularity continued to rise, and in two weeks, he had a ten-point lead on then-frontrunner Jeb Bush.

Now, fast forward to today. Trump is the clear frontrunner; one-time party darling Scott Walker is out of the race; Bush bumps along in single digits, tagged with Trump’s “low energy” label; and the remaining establishment candidates are hanging on for dear life.

Then there is Paul Ryan’s unlikely ascendance to the Speakership. His predecessor John Boehner had always been somewhat vulnerable as Speaker, having never really earned the trust of the Freedom Caucus—40-odd conservative House members who preferred a more confrontational approach. Year after year, he proved able to survive challenges to his leadership, but the grumbling on his right flank continued. So it wasn’t a complete surprise when Boehner had a post-papal visit epiphany and announced his retirement. However, few predicted Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy would exit the Speaker’s race in a matter of days, paving the way for Ryan to be drafted by his colleagues.

Boehner’s departure allowed him to “clean the barn,” resulting in a two-year budget agreement with the White House to fund the government and extend the debt limit. However, Ryan’s ascent to Speaker meant he had to give up his post as Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, right at the time the Committee was preparing to mark up the finance portion of the Highway Bill. As a result, other than accepting the Senate’s package of one-time revenue raisers, the House basically punted on any meaningful changes to federal highway financing policy (thereby leaving ACPA and a host of other organizations without a vehicle to address their legislative priorities).

I suppose you could argue that black swans are an unavoidable fact of modern political life. After all, who would have predicted 21 years ago that Newt Gingrich and the GOP would take over the House after 40 years of Democrat control, or that 11 years ago a young state Senator from Illinois would be elected President of the U.S., let alone twice?

If there is any lesson to draw, it is that in order to succeed in D.C., organizations have to be resilient. Just as black swans can ruin your finely-laid legislative plans, they can also provide new opportunities for success if you are ready to exploit them.

I only hope the next political black swan doesn’t fly in before my column goes to print.